EUR/USD Forecast: Euro not out of the woods
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UPGRADE- The US Dollar loses momentum, triggering a rebound in EUR/USD.
- The bias remains downward, with 1.0600 in sight.
- Key data ahead: Eurozone and US PMI data are due on Friday.
The EUR/USD erased losses on Thursday, hitting a fresh multi-month low at 1.0615. The pair tested the daily low following US data and then staged a recovery, reaching 1.0670 fueled by a correction in the US Dollar.
The Greenback peaked and then weakened after the release of US economic data, which showed a decline in Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims to the lowest level since January. However, the Philly Fed Index unexpectedly tumbled. US yields initially reached fresh multi-year highs but later pulled back.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers expressed differing views on Thursday. Knot mentioned that he does not expect a rate hike at the next policy meeting, while Wunsch argued that it is premature to conclude that they have reached the terminal rate. After ECB’s dovish pause, inflation figures will be crucial in shaping future decisions.
On Friday, the key report to watch will be the PMIs, which will provide preliminary information about economic activity during September in the Eurozone and the US. Considering that central banks are data-dependent, these numbers will be closely monitored.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD erased losses and ended up hovering around 1.0660. It reached a low point at 1.0616, the lowest level since March. The overall trend remains downward, and a daily close above the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 1.0740 is needed to alleviate the bearish bias.
On the 4-hour chart, further weakness is likely while staying below 1.0670. The 1.0630 area once again serves as a support level to consider. A break below this level would increase bearish pressure, exposing the 1.0600 area. However, if the Euro surpasses 1.0670, an extension to the upside appears likely, with the next resistance at 1.0700. Technical indicators offer mixed signs.
- The US Dollar loses momentum, triggering a rebound in EUR/USD.
- The bias remains downward, with 1.0600 in sight.
- Key data ahead: Eurozone and US PMI data are due on Friday.
The EUR/USD erased losses on Thursday, hitting a fresh multi-month low at 1.0615. The pair tested the daily low following US data and then staged a recovery, reaching 1.0670 fueled by a correction in the US Dollar.
The Greenback peaked and then weakened after the release of US economic data, which showed a decline in Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims to the lowest level since January. However, the Philly Fed Index unexpectedly tumbled. US yields initially reached fresh multi-year highs but later pulled back.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers expressed differing views on Thursday. Knot mentioned that he does not expect a rate hike at the next policy meeting, while Wunsch argued that it is premature to conclude that they have reached the terminal rate. After ECB’s dovish pause, inflation figures will be crucial in shaping future decisions.
On Friday, the key report to watch will be the PMIs, which will provide preliminary information about economic activity during September in the Eurozone and the US. Considering that central banks are data-dependent, these numbers will be closely monitored.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD erased losses and ended up hovering around 1.0660. It reached a low point at 1.0616, the lowest level since March. The overall trend remains downward, and a daily close above the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 1.0740 is needed to alleviate the bearish bias.
On the 4-hour chart, further weakness is likely while staying below 1.0670. The 1.0630 area once again serves as a support level to consider. A break below this level would increase bearish pressure, exposing the 1.0600 area. However, if the Euro surpasses 1.0670, an extension to the upside appears likely, with the next resistance at 1.0700. Technical indicators offer mixed signs.
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