EUR/USD Forecast: chances of a Dollar's recovery decreased further
|- ECB and Fed's meeting minutes to take center stage this week.
- Risk sentiment leading the way for the greenback.
The greenback tumbled against the common currency this week after spending the previous two in a consolidative phase after better-than-expected German growth figures triggered a bullish breakout. Adding to the positive momentum of the EUR were political jitters in the US, which triggered risk sentiment and pushed equities to fresh 1-month lows. The EUR/USD pair's rally extended up to 1.1860 early Wednesday, but speculative interest preferred to take profits out of the table, with the pair stable around 1.1800 afterward, ahead of upcoming ECB and Fed's meeting minutes. It will be a pretty light data-wise week the next one, but wording from both central banks ahead of December meetings can shake the board.
One of the biggest hurdles for the American dollar was the backs-and-forths surrounding the US tax reform, with the House approving a bill and the Senate set to discuss a different one around Thanksgiving. Investors are quite discouraged on the news, as they can't see the light at the end of the tunnel, moreover after some rumors suggesting that two GOP Senators could vote against it, something that the ruling party can't afford these days. US Equities plunged at the beginning of the week, recovered pre-Thursday House's vote but resumed their declines on Friday, painting a gloom future for the greenback.
Technically, the daily weekly chart shows that the pair managed to regain ground above the 200 SMA after spending the previous two below it, with the pair also closing the week above the 20 SMA, first time in 4 weeks. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart have changed course after entering negative territory, now aiming to advance above its mid-line, while the RSI indicator accelerated south, currently around 60, all of which indicates that the market is getting ready for another bullish run. In the daily chart, technical indicators recovered the momentum upward, while the pair remained above the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, with the only down note being the fact that the price remains right below its 100 SMA.
The weekly high at 1.1860 is the immediate resistance ahead of the 1.1920 level, while beyond this last a test of 1.2000 seems likely. The mentioned Fibonacci support comes at 1.1745, with a break below it favoring a downward extension towards the 1.1660 region, a strong static support and the 61.8% retracement of the same rally. A break below this last with signal a change of course, with 1.1460 being back on the table.
Sentiment this week has turned quite mixed according to the FXStreet Forecast Poll but risk-related, as the greenback is seen strengthening against high-yielding currencies, but down against safe-havens' rivals. In the case of the EUR/USD pair, the number of bears and bulls is exactly the same weekly basis, with the pair seen unchanged at 1.1800. Bears become a majority afterward, but not surpassing the 50% of participants, and with the average price target steady above 1.1700.
When observing the shifted price chart, is clear that sentiment is trending upward short-term, but easing in the 3-month view. The overview chart, presents a flat line in the longer term perspective, a sign of the ongoing uncertainty.
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