EUR/USD Forecast: Cautious buying ahead of ECB’s decision
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Subscribe to PremiumEUR/USD Current Price: 1.1803
- The European Central Bank will unveil its latest decision on monetary policy.
- Global indexes closed in the green, Wall Street turned positive weekly basis.
- EUR/USD keeps trading around the 1.1800 level, the risk is skewed to the downside.
The EUR/USD pair recovered some ground, hitting a daily high of 1.1804 on the back of a better market’s mood. The pair finished the day around the 1.1800 mark, as the looming European Central Bank’s decision keeps bulls side-lined. Global indexes posted gains, with Wall Street entering positive territory for the first time in the week. Government bond yields were sharply higher, reflecting decreased demand for safe-haven assets.
The macroeconomic calendar was scarce, as the US only published MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended July 16, which declined 4% after a previous 16% advance. On Thursday, the US will publish weekly unemployment figures and the June Chicago Fed National Activity Index. As said, the ECB will announce its latest monetary policy decision. No changes are expected to rates and the facilities programs, but the market expects a dovish tilt in the statement, with the focus on the pandemic-related risk and changes in the forward guidance.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair trades with modest gains, but without signs of bullish potential. The pair keeps developing inside a descendant channel coming from June 25 high at 1.1974. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators turned flat after crossing their midlines into positive levels, offering a neutral stance. The pair stands a few pips above a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while the longer ones keep heading lower above the current level. The risk remains skewed to the downside, with a test of March low at 1.1703, on the table.
Support levels: 1.1755 1.1720 1.1685
Resistance levels: 1.1840 1.1885 1.1920
EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1803
- The European Central Bank will unveil its latest decision on monetary policy.
- Global indexes closed in the green, Wall Street turned positive weekly basis.
- EUR/USD keeps trading around the 1.1800 level, the risk is skewed to the downside.
The EUR/USD pair recovered some ground, hitting a daily high of 1.1804 on the back of a better market’s mood. The pair finished the day around the 1.1800 mark, as the looming European Central Bank’s decision keeps bulls side-lined. Global indexes posted gains, with Wall Street entering positive territory for the first time in the week. Government bond yields were sharply higher, reflecting decreased demand for safe-haven assets.
The macroeconomic calendar was scarce, as the US only published MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended July 16, which declined 4% after a previous 16% advance. On Thursday, the US will publish weekly unemployment figures and the June Chicago Fed National Activity Index. As said, the ECB will announce its latest monetary policy decision. No changes are expected to rates and the facilities programs, but the market expects a dovish tilt in the statement, with the focus on the pandemic-related risk and changes in the forward guidance.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair trades with modest gains, but without signs of bullish potential. The pair keeps developing inside a descendant channel coming from June 25 high at 1.1974. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators turned flat after crossing their midlines into positive levels, offering a neutral stance. The pair stands a few pips above a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while the longer ones keep heading lower above the current level. The risk remains skewed to the downside, with a test of March low at 1.1703, on the table.
Support levels: 1.1755 1.1720 1.1685
Resistance levels: 1.1840 1.1885 1.1920
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