EUR/USD analysis: US Durable Goods take center stage this Monday
|EUR/USD Current price: 1.0559
The American dollar closed the week with a soft tone across the board, despite Friday's sharp recovery, higher weekly basis, however, against the EUR, as the common currency remains undermined by political uncertainty in the region, centered at the time being in the upcoming French presidential elections, as Marine Le Pen, the most popular candidate, has pledged to call for a "Frexit" referendum, should she win the election. Confidence in the USD was eroded by an unclear FED on when the next rate hike will come, and the absence of economic announcements from the new US administration.
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair advanced up to 1.0617, but quickly retreated below the 1.0600 figure, to close the week around 1.0560, despite US data was far from encouraging. Consumer confidence fell in February for the first time since the US election, according to the University of Michigan's monthly survey, as the index came in at 96.3 from January's 98.5. Sales of new homes during January rose at a slower-than-expected pace, as sales climbed by 3.7% to an annualized pace of 555,000. The upcoming week will be quite a busy one in the US, starting with the release of Durable Goods Orders for January this Monday, expected to have improved from December's figures.
From a technical point of view, the pair is biased lower, as Friday's spike was contained by a daily descendant trend line coming from this year high of 1.0828, whilst the price settled below the 23.6% retracement of the post-US election rally, at 1.0565, the immediate resistance. In the daily chart, indicators have turned south within negative territory, whilst the price remained well below bearish 20 and 100 SMAs all the week, supporting some further slides on a break below 1.0520. In the 4 hours chart, the price settled around a flat 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator has turned sharply lower and is about to cross its 100 level, while the RSI indicator presents a modest bearish slope around 45, also supporting a bearish extension on a break below the mentioned support.
Support levels: 1.0520 1.0470 1.0440
Resistance levels: 1.0590 1.0635 1.0660
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