Analysis

EUR/USD advances amid inflation expectations

Gold and silver are soaring; US equities are roaring higher two or three times more than metals. Markets are hoping there won't be a recession, and the US economy will return to growth in the second half of the year. Perfect, as if nothing has happened.

The only new thing is trillions of dollars printed into the markets over the last three weeks. Equities rebounded (why not, with 30% unemployment it is ok to be bullish), metals soared, bonds moved higher, and the only thing unmoved has been the US dollar. 

Not anymore - on Tuesday, the EURUSD pair was up more than 1%, trading at around 1.0920, and it seems that investors are starting to price in the enormous inflation, which is coming soon.

Since there is virtually no supply-side - everyone is sitting at home, and no new goods are being produced, but the money supply is increasing dramatically; this cant end in any other way than in high inflation. Which means the dollar should suffer greatly.

The next resistance for the EURUSD pair is at around 1.10, and afterward, we can see a quick rally toward 1.1150 or possibly toward the current cycle highs of 1.15. Long-term long positions are well-positioned at these levels.

 

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