Elliott Wave analysis: USD/JPY zigzag correction likely to fail below 149
|The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for USDJPY indicates that the decline from the August 1, 2025, high is developing as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From that peak, wave ((w)) concluded at 146.2. The subsequent wave ((x)) rally formed another double three pattern at a lesser degree. Starting from wave ((w)), wave (w) reached 148.77, followed by a dip in wave (x) to 146.56. Wave (y) then climbed to 149.1, completing wave ((x)) at a higher degree.
Currently, USDJPY has turned downward in wave ((y)). However, it must break below the wave ((w)) low at 146.2 to eliminate the possibility of a double correction in wave ((x)). The internal structure of wave ((y)) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave pattern. From the wave ((x)) high, wave (a) ended at 146.3. Wave (b) is now rallying to correct the cycle from the September 3, 2025, high before resuming its downward trajectory. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 149.1 holds, expect any rally to falter in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, leading to further declines. The potential target for wave ((y)) lower lies within the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((w)), projecting a range of 141.5–144.4.
USD/JPY – 60 Minute Elliott Wave technical chart
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