Economic sentiment in CEE improves in the third quarter
|On the radar
-
Retail sales in Slovenia increased by 0.7% y/y in August.
-
Today at 8.30 AM CET Hungary releases producer prices in August.
-
At 10 AM CET Poland will publish September’s flash inflation while Slovenia’s release is at 10.30 AM CET.
-
Retail sales and industrial output growth in August is due 11 AM CET in Croatia and due noon CET in Serbia.
-
On the top of that, Serbia will release trade data.
Economic developments
Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) improved in the third quarter compared to the second one as the average for CEE8 increased from 97 to 97.4. It is quite clear, however, that the bottom was reached in July (CEE8 average at 95.5) and since then we have seen visible improvement (CEE8 average at 98.6 in September). Looking across the countries market sentiment improved the most in Czechia, Hungary, Slovenia and in Serbia over last couple of months supporting higher CEE8 average. In Czechia, Hungary and in Slovenia, the ESI reached the highest value since the beginning of the year. Increasing economic sentiment is in line with our baseline scenario that certainty regarding tariffs should help economic activity in the second half of the year and beyond 2025. Consumer confidence indicator has also edged up in the region driven by strengthening confidence in Hungary mostly.
Market movements
The FX and bond markets were stable at the beginning of the week. Romania sold RON 574.5 million of government papers maturing in 2032. The demand was solid. Poland’s Ministry of Finance has financed 100% of 2025 borrowing needs and began prefinancing of 2026. There is no other major news regarding market performance. September’s flash inflation release will be in the center of attention today in the region.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.