Analysis

Dollar pares recent gain on return of risk sentiment as U.S. stocks rebound

The greenback snapped it's recent winning streak and ended lower against majority of its peers Friday on the return of risk sentiment as global stocks rallied. The Dow pared intra-day gains and ended the day at 28,606, up by 112 points or 0.39%.  
  
Reuters reported U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in September, rounding out a strong quarter of economic activity, though the recovery from the recession is at a crossroads as government money runs out and new COVID-19 infections surge across the country.     Retail sales jumped 1.9% last month after an unrevised 0.6% gain in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.7% in September.  
  
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar remained under pressure and retreated to 105.20 in Asian morning before staging a rebound to 105.33 in early European morning. The pair then edged higher to 105.44 in New York morning due partly to the release of upbeat U.S. retail sales data before trading sideways.  
  
The single currency moved sideways in Asia before edging down to session lows at 1.1695 at European open due partly to cross-selling of euro especially versus sterling. However, the pair then rallied to an intra-day high at 1.1745 at New York open due partly to a rise in U.S. stock futures before retreating to 1.1714 as U.S. stocks trimmed intra-day gains.  
  
The British pound swung wildly in hectic trading as Brexit headlines dictated price movement. Although price met renewed selling at 1.2922 in Australia and retreated to 1.2884 at European open, price rose to 1.2948, then to session highs at 1.2962 in European morning on UK Foreign Secretary Raab's comments. Cable then erased intra-day gains and tumbled to a 1-week low of 1.2860 (Reuters) in Europe on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's comments before rebounding again strongly to 1.2945 near New York midday on hopes that Brexit talks would still continue.  
  
Reuters reported Britain's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said on Friday there was a Brexit trade deal "to be done" after the European Union put the onus on Britain to compromise.     "We've always said there's a deal to be done," he told BBC radio on Friday.      Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday it was now time to prepare for a no-trade deal Brexit as the European Union had refused to negotiate seriously and that unless Brussels changed course there would not be an agreement.     "I have concluded that we should get ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia's based on simple principles of global free trade," Johnson said.  
Also,  the European Union is still preparing for more trade talks with Britain next week, an official and a diplomat told Reuters after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday it was now time to prepare for a no-trade deal Brexit.     "He didn't say they will leave the negotiating table. So it's all just rhetoric. He didn't say they won't keep on talking. So they will," the diplomat said.  
  
Data to be released this week :  
  
UK Rightmove house price index, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, China industrial output, retail sales, GDP, EU construction output, Canada wholesale trade and U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.  
  
New Zealand NZIER confidence, China house price index, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Germany producer prices, EU current account, and U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook on Tuesday.  
  
Australia Westpac leading index, UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, PSNB, PSNCR, DCLG house price index, U.S. MBA mortgage applications, and Canada CPI, core CPI, new housing price index, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos on Wednesday.  
  
Australia NAB business confidence, Japan total industry activity, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, France business climate, UK CBI trends orders, EU consumer confidence, and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, existing home sales, leading index, KC Fed manufacturing index on Thursday.  
  
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, New Zealand CPI, UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI on Friday.  

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