Developments since our June monthly economic outlook
|Key Takeaways
Developments since our June Monthly Economic Outlook
We have downwardly revised our 2020 U.S. real GDP growth forecast as a result of localized pauses/reversals in the re-opening process. The revision is relatively modest (-0.3 ppts for the year) but it highlights the risks posed by localized restrictions becoming more severe and/or widespread.
We upwardly revised our unemployment rate forecast modestly, but the overall trend largely remains the same: an unemployment rate of roughly 8% at year-end 2020 and 6% at year-end 2021.
Our baseline U.S. forecast continues to assume no additional fiscal stimulus beyond what has already passed. Thus, should another large package become law, there would be upside risk to our forecasts for the U.S. economy, with the actual magnitude dependent on the ultimate size and design of the package.
Our year-end 2020 forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield remains 1.15%, but with risks to the downside.
We have downwardly revised our 2020 global growth forecast by less than a tenth to -3.8%. Upward revisions to the growth outlook in the Eurozone were offset by downward revisions to growth elsewhere, particularly the United States, United Kingdom andMexico.
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