Despite the ECB waxing Dovish the Euro’s still the least ugly kid at the currency prom
|The ECB just pulled the pin — not with a bang, but with a wink. Dropping “restrictive” from the statement may sound like central bank word soup, but in FX, that’s the equivalent of a neon sign: cuts are coming, and probably faster than priced.
Usually, I’d be licking my chops shorting EURUSD with the ECB dropping dovish breadcrumbs — but not this cycle. Rate differentials aren’t driving the bus anymore — it’s all about capital flows, risk rotation, and where the money feels safest.
Still, the ECB is staring down the barrel of deflation risk, trade war blowback, and a credit market going cold. Their own bank lending survey was a flashing red — tighter standards, shrinking loan demand — and that’s before Trump’s tariff cannonball even makes a splash.
Forget fiscal cavalry, too. Whatever Berlin and Brussels are cooking up is way too far down the runway to matter now. The market knows it, and so does Frankfurt. The ECB is boxed in — it’s not just about defending growth anymore, it’s about stopping the euro from running hot on a trade-weighted basis.
So here we are: EURUSD traded soft, not collapsing. No rug pull — just a market leaning too far one way, with stretched longs keeping things heavy.
I’m sticking with the plan: buy the deeper dips and lean into the rotation trade into EU assets. The macro’s shifting, and capital is still sniffing out relative risk value in the European assets. Timing is everything, but the setup is still alive unless US stocks somehow make a comeback.
Bottom line: this isn’t about love for the euro. It’s about dysfunction elsewhere. In the FX game, you don’t need to be the best-looking — just not the ugliest. Right now, the euro still passes that test. Just don’t ask it to win a beauty pageant.
And that’s a wrap, folks. A few wild weeks behind us, some solid coin in the war chest, and sure — a bit of frustration we didn’t nail the grand slam to 1.1500. A few near-misses, a couple of misfires, and the usual FX what-ifs that come with life inside the FX thunderdome.
But we walk away in the green — and that’s the only scoreboard that matters. Still small in the game, still pressing. Let’s see if we can crack that 1.1420–30 zone over the next 24 hours: eyes up, fingers on the trigger.
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