Currency market: DXY V EUR/USD, RBNZ V NZD, and WTI
|Current DXY at 96.40 approaches many and massive averages from 97.00's to 98.00's. EUR/USD traded to 1.1226 lows while DXY achieved tops at 96.61. Reversals for higher and lower DXY Vs EUR/USD are located at 95.25 DXY and EUR/USD 1.1494. DXY trades within 60 pips to a brick wall.
DXY day trade tops today are located at 96.79,96.91 and 97.04 while EUR/USD bottoms are located at 1.1210, 1.1197, 1.1191, and 1.1177.
On a reversal higher EUR/USD tops are located at 1.1262 and 1.1291 Vs DXY bottoms at 96.30. 96.18 and 96.06. DXY 96.06 bottom should match close to EUR/USD at 1.1262 and 1.1291.
EUR/USD sits currently deeply oversold. EUR/USD began the week massively oversold.
GBP/USD at current 1.3300's trades within 200 pips to its 5-year average at 1.3101 while USD/CAD at 1.2700's trades within 300 pips to 1.3043. GBP/USD at current prices sits deeply oversold and overbought USD/CAD.
RBNZ
Probabilities RBNZ raises OCR from 0.50 to 0.75 sits at +43% and 33% to raise from 0.50 to 1.00 while an 80% probability exists to OCR on hold.
The only scenario to possibly raise is OCR's overnight drop from 0.52 to 0.48 or 4 points. However, OCR traded from 0.23 to 0.20 throughout the month of September. A raise was signaled not by OCR but by the 30-day rate while today's nonmovement to interest rates and yields provides no warning to possible OCR movements. We're on the side of on hold.
NZD/USD and NZD/CAD
NZD/USD approaches its 5-year average at 0.6846. To consider a possible break lower, NZD/USD must first trade below 0.6888 and 0.6840 then 0.6779 and 0.6744. Above is located 0.6932 to range from 0.6932 to 0.7048 and 0.7051.
NZD/USD's problem to ranges is both NZD/USD and NZD/JPY trade above 5-year averages while NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD trade below. NZD lacks uniformity. Either NZD/USD breaks below 0.6846 and NZD/JPY at 76.57 or NZD/CHF trades above 0.6596 and NZD/CAD 0.8919.
NZD's main problem is NZD/CAD as it trades between 2 giant points from 0.8829 to 0.8919 or 90 pips. NZD/CAD's price path is found by 0.8817, 0.8826, 0.8829 then 0.8869.
Watch NZD/JPY at 79.43 for lower prices.
Until NZD/USD and NZD cross pairs rightsize to trade in proper locations then NZD will continue to trade as a problem currency and best to avoid as better and more profitable trades exist.
WTI June 2021
As posted in June 2021 when WTI traded from 66.00's to 77.00's or 11 points, WTI was located at the 23 and 24 year monthly averages. The only trade was short as overbought began at 73.00's. WTI since traded to a double top at 85.00's.
Higher targets and short points as written were located at 79.99, 85.15, 89.43, 91.80. WTI now trades overbought at 75.00's.
Overall, WTI traded 19 points higher, 6 months later from 66.00's to 85.00's then 10 points lower. WTI traded 29 points overall in 6 months.
The road lower will be much harder to travel as first breaks are located at 71.59, 71.13 at the 14 and 15-year averages then 66.70 at the 10-year average followed by the 5 years at 53.42.
From 71.13 then next comes 70.79, 69.53, 68.88, 67.53, 66.70, 65.55, 63.48, 63.46, 59.83, 54.58, 53.94, 53.42 at the 5 year average then to continue 52.71, 52.39, 51.68 and 49.05.
The trade road was written 5 months ago and the results are the same. Short only however many and massive supports exists every point along the way.
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