Analysis

Bitcoin approaches $40,000 after Elon Musk's tweet

While the Crypto market has been experiencing severe corrections over the last several weeks, with the total market capitalization dropping below $1,5 trillion, many of the moves seem to be caused by external factors such as news of a potential tax increase (as we saw with the biden capital gains tax plan) or from tweets by influential figures like Elon Musk. Musk, who in the first part of the year was a big proponent of crypto currencies and in particular bitcoin, which benefited greatly from the decision of his company (Tesla) to start accepting the most famous crypto as payment for their electric vehicles. Since then, his tone has changed and after being confronted with the unsustainability of the mining process, Elon publicly shifted his outlook on bitcoin which contributed to the corrections we are seeing. However, things appear to be changing with his latest tweet which suggested that if there were to be a shift into a “greener” and more sustainable way of mining bitcoin, the car manufacturer would be open to accept it. In essence, one of the things this seems to illustrate is that while the sector is growing in popularity and credibility, it is still incredibly susceptible to external influences and short term boosts of confidence that seem to disappear almost as quickly as they appeared. 

Iran nuclear deal in focus while Iranian oil makes comeback 

While the Iran nuclear deal has been a topic of ongoing discussion for several  years, as it was originally introduced by US president Obama before being withdrawn by president Trump, it is now once again a key issue in anticipation of the upcoming Iranian elections on June 18th. US and Iranian negotiators have been working to reach a deal before that date, as a delay could lead to complications and potentially hinder the ability to reach a compromise with a new administration. Both parties seem interested in a mutually beneficial agreement and a key thing to note is that, an agreement would lead to the return of Iranian oil to global markets, which in a time of very carefully balanced supply and demand would cause OPEC and other oil producers to have to adapt. On the other hand, the latest IEA report urged OPEC to boost production as high demand risks creating a large deficit in the oil market indicating the recovery is ongoing despite reopening delays seen in many countries, including the UK. While Oil prices start the week with an upward move with WTI trading at the highest level in around two years ($70,50), it remains to be seen if they will be able to continue rising, or if there will be a correction brought on by a  supply adjustment, weather from OPEC or from the potential return of Iranian oil after several years of sanctions.  

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