Analysis

AUD/USD Declines Off CPI Miss And Potential RBA Cut

The below is the weekly chart of the USDOLLAR. Last week looks to be a bearish reference candle. I.e. a candle with a lower high to either side of it. If this week’s candle closes below last week’s low (green horizontal), it will give weight to the bearish reference candle scenario. Moreover the RSI(9) has dipped below 50 (blue rectangle), which is the bearish side of the oscillator. If price drops below the black dashed line it will effectively result in a lower peak followed by a lower trough, which is the classical definition of a downtrend. Australian CPI for the quarter came in at 0.0%, which missed the 0.2% forecast. The RBA is due to meet on 7 May and markets are now anticipating a 25bps cash rate cut to 1.25%.

 

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