Analysis

AUD rises on CPI shocker, bond yields reverse declines

Asia Market Update: Equity markets trade mixed; AUD rises on CPI shocker, bond yields reverse declines; NZD drops on CPI figures.

General trend

- AUD/NZD rises >1% [RBA and RBNZ in focus].

- Australian equities declined following CPI data.

- Japanese equities rebound.

- US equity FUTs reversed gains, Microsoft declined amid financial results.

- The week-long China Lunar New Year holiday started on Jan 21st (Sat).

- Hong Kong markets to return on Thurs.

- Will Thailand hike rates?

- Bank of Canada rate decision in focus.

- US companies due to report earnings include Tesla, Abbott Labs, AT&T, IBM, Boeing, CSX, Freeport-McMoran.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens flat at 7,488.

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 CPI Q/Q: 1.9% V 1.6%E; Y/Y: 7.8% V 7.6%E [highest annual pace since 1990].

- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC CPI Y/Y: 8.4% V 7.4% PRIOR (7.7%E).

- (AU) Australia Dec Leading Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.2% prior.

- (AU) Australia PM Albanese: Confirms there is increased engagement at different levels between China and Australia agencies.

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 CPI Q/Q: 1.4% V 1.3%E; Y/Y: 7.2% V 7.1%E.

- (NZ) RBNZ Q4 Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.6% prior.

- (NZ) ANZ now expects the RBNZ to raise rates by 50bps in Feb (prior 75bps), sees terminal rate at 5.25%.

- (NZ) Westpac: Now sees the RBNZ raising rates by 50bps in Feb.

- (NZ) RBNZ: New foreign reserves framework has been agreed upon between RBNZ and Minister of Finance; An increase to foreign reserve holdings is needed.

- (NZ) Chris Hipkins officially sworn in as new PM: To refresh government work program; to put some plans on slower track.

China/Hong Kong

-Hang Seng closed for holiday.

-Shanghai Composite closed for holiday.

-(JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Matsuno: 5 China nationals rescued from sunken ship.

Japan

-Nikkei 225 opens -0.5% at 27,175.

- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement related to daily bond buying operation: inline with planned amounts.

-(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Markets moves becoming stable [from Jan 24th].

-(JP) Former Bank of Japan (BOJ) official Maeda reiterates new BOJ Gov likely to start phasing out YCC, if yield range is widened to 75bps it could mean the end of YCC - US financial press.

Korea

-Kospi opens +1.3% at 2,426 [follows extended holiday].

-(KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): 2023 private consumption likely to be weaker than expected.

-(KR) North Korea orders 5-day lockdown in Pyongyang on illness - North Korea press.

Other Asia

-(SG) Singapore Dec CPI M/M: 0.2% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.6%e.

North America

- (US) House Speaker McCarthy (R): Have to have a 'responsible' debt ceiling, let's eliminate wasteful spending.

-(US) Follow Up: NYSE says ended Tues with a normal market close, expects a regular open on Wed.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

- Nikkei 225, +0.5%, ASX 200 -0.3% , Hang Seng closed; Shanghai Composite closed ; Kospi +1.3%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures: -0.4%; Nasdaq100 -0.8%, Dax -0.2%; FTSE100 -0.1%.

- EUR 1.0903-1.0880 ; JPY 130.58-130.03 ; AUD 0.7108-0.7032 ;NZD 0.6526-0.6466.

- Gold -0.3% at $1,929/oz; Crude Oil +0.2% at $80.25/brl; Copper -0.2% at $4.2535/lb.

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