A big day for the pound, while all eyes are on Trump

Today's Highlights

Carney's Ring of Fire

Secretary Tycoon of State

United States of Trump

Please Note: All data, figures & graphs below are valid as of January 11th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

 

Market Overview

Stock markets on Wall Street and around the world are mixed. Some up some down. Oddly enough, some of them are swinging, just not all in the same direction. Everybody seems to be waiting for something, but not everyone is waiting for the same thing.

Here are a few things the markets are waiting for.

 

Mark Carney

The famed Governor of the Bank of England will be facing some of his favourite people today, British politicians. Over the past year, MPs have put Carney's policies and even his career in question simply because he told them an, at the time inconvenient, but now obvious truth that Brexit would have economic consequences.

May's comments at the start of the week have shown us that indeed we are heading for a hard Brexit and some analysts are now predicting the GBPUSD at 1.10 if negotiations get any tougher than they are now. At the moment the Pound is facing a red line, the last line of support at 1.20.

Mark is probably the only one who can save the Pound from falling into the abyss. If he breathes a single word about tighter monetary policy, cutting QE or raising rates, we could see the Sterling fly. However, if he lets it fall then fall it shall.

 

Secretary Tycoon of State

Crude hasn't been doing so well this year. After a brief ramp to $55 on the first trading day, things started to fall apart rather quickly.

Speculations about OPEC's deal were soon overflooded by Donald Trump's appointment of Rex Tillerson, a well known oil tycoon, as secretary of state.

With the former CEO of ExxonMobil now holding a top spot in the White House "Drill Baby Drill" could become the new national anthem.

Rex will face tough questions about Russia, the Middle East, and more at his confirmation hearing today but overall he is expected to be sworn in.

We'll also get Crude Oil inventories later today so we can expect heavy volatility today.

 

Trump's Conference of Interest

A long awaited press conference. Today the President-elect will unveil his plans concerning how he will or will not handle his personal business affairs while in the Oval Office. He will probably remind us that by law the President of the United States is not bound by conflict of interest laws, but despite his protest, the people are expecting some sort of wall to be erected.

Also shoved onto the agenda at the last minute are some allegations that Russia is holding some potentially embarrassing information on Trump. This has been a hot topic all day and we all know Trump loves a hot topic.

The markets will keep a special eye on this conference because it will probably be the best indication we have to date about how Donald will behave as President. Will he be able to accomplish all the wonderful things he wants to? 

The markets are currently pricing in a perfect Trump, one without flaws. So if he acts presidential today, the markets will respect him. But if he loses his cool, or shows any signs of immaturity or lack of leadership skills, we may see investors re-think their previous assessments.