WTI: repositioning ahead of OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting (Vienna), in $1.00 range still around $50 handle
|WTI has been trading in a $1.00 range again on Thursday, with a base of the $50 handle for the most part.
Oil prices have been buoyed in September, rallying from the late September lows on the $46 handle in WTI when bulls reached a high of $51.11 making for a five-month high.
However, oil prices inched lower on late Wednesday and Thursday. There is speculative positioning going on here and profit taking due to the bid dollar and post the FOMC hawkish surprise in respect to next years dot plot where three hikes are still scheduled in the Fed's plans, despite several measures of inflation running below target.
Also, casting eyes back at the calendar, traders are reminded that data from a U.S. government report released Wednesday showed a larger-than-expected weekly rise in domestic crude supplies and a sizable climb in production.
- Fed: dovish long-term - Deutsche Bank
- Fed policy is still likely to feature strongly as an influence in coming months - Rabobank
Moreover, speculative traders repositioned ahead of this Friday's OPEC/Non-OPEC announcements, that is expected to boost oil on the prospects of an extension to the production cuts, or indeed, from any mention of oil controls are discussed and announced. The members of the OPEC and other major producers (non-OPEC) will meet Friday in Vienna to discuss the market impact of the production-cap agreement.
WTI levels
Technically, the daily sticks are bullish extending beyond the100 and 200 SMAs with indicators recently moving into overbought readings. The 4-hour chart is also bullish, with the price far above the key bullish moving averages with a strong upward momentum. The key daily high and target is located at 52.00, the 24th May high. Support levels: 50.11, 49.60 and 49.10. Resistance levels: 50.80, 51.55 and 52.00.
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