When is the monthly Canadian GDP report and how could it affect USD/CAD?
|Canadian monthly GDP overview
Tuesday's economic docket highlights the release of monthly Canadian GDP growth figures for the month of July, scheduled to be published at 12:30 GMT by Statistics Canada. Consensus estimates point to a further deceleration in the monthly growth rate to 0.1% as compared to the previous month's reading of 0.2%.
Meanwhile, TD Securities analysis team is looking for Canada’s industry-level GDP to rise by a muted 0.1% in July and explained - “If realized, this would be the weakest print since the 0.3% contraction in February and leave Q3 tracking in the low 1% range. While this is slightly below BoC projections from the July MPR, on-target inflation and a robust labour market still support keeping rates on hold through the rest of 2019.”
Deviation impact on USD/CAD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction on the USD/CAD pair, in case of a deviation between +0.83 to -0.83, is likely to be around 34-52 pips during the first 15-minutes and could get extended to 72-85 pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect USD/CAD?
Ahead of the key release, Ross J Burland, FXStreet's own analyst, offered important technical levels to trade the major and wrote – “USD/CAD remains capped by the 200-day moving average and a confluence of the 50% Fibonacci mean reversion of the July rally to September highs, accumulated around 1.33 the figure. Should bulls get above this barrier, then eyes will be on 1.34 handle and mid-June highs. On this break below the 21-DMA, bears are looking for a test of trend line support which will open prospects for the July lows just ahead of 1.30 the figure which guards a run to the 1.28 handle and a 161.80% Fibo extension.”
Key Notes
• USD/CAD forecast: Technicals lean bearish ahead of key data points
• USD/CAD Trades in an Indecisive Mode
About monthly Canadian GDP
The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.
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