When is the German Prelim CPI and how could it affect EUR/USD?
|German Prelim CPI Overview
Today's Euro-zone economic docket highlights the release of German prelim CPI data, up for release later this session at 1300 GMT. The headline CPI is expected to come in at 0.2% m/m and the yearly rate is expected to tick lower to 2.4% in November from 2.5% previous.
Meanwhile, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) - an indicator of inflation and price stability for the European Central Bank (ECB), is also expected to ease a bit to 2.3% y/y rate during the reported month as compared to previous month's reading of 2.4%.
The analysis team at TD Securities explains: “Underlying this, it's likely that core (ex-food and energy) CPI remained unchanged at 1.5%, despite a likely bounce in package holidays as other services categories along with ex-energy goods should be rather muted. Looking ahead inflation should slip further in December before resuming a gradual climb as oil prices recover.”
How could it affect EUR/USD?
FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam offered key technical levels for trading EUR/USD on the CPI release: “Support awaits at 1.1355 that supported the pair in mid-November. 1.1325 was a cushion on Friday. The round number of 1.1300 was a double-bottom and separated ranges on Wednesday. 1.1270 was the low point on Wednesday ahead of the 2018 trough of 1.1215.”
“1.1385 capped the pair early in the weak and defends 1.1400, a round number the pair nearly touched earlier in the day. 1.1435 was a high point a week ago and 1.1475 was the high point last week,” he adds further.
Key Notes
• EUR/USD comes under pressure and drops to 1.1350
• EUR/USD well-supported, one more hurdle and then it targets 1.1526 – Confluence Detector
About the German Prelim CPI
The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).
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