When are the UK wages and how could they affect GBP/USD?
|UK Jobs report overview
The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to January, are expected to decelerate 3.2%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are expected to rise 3.4% in the reported period.
The number of people seeking jobless benefits are seen increasing by 2.7k in the three months to February versus 14.2k additions booked last. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.0% during the period.
How could they affect GBP/USD?
A disappointment on the UK’s wages could trigger a fresh round of selling in the pound while markets remain watchful of the Brexit-related developments. The rates could test the 1.3250 (daily pivot). A break below the last, a test of 1.3200 (round figure) remains inevitable.
On a positive surprise, the GBP/USD pair could extend the recovery and test the the 1.3300 barrier, above which the immediate resistances lie at 1.3315 (classic daily R1) and 1.3341 (Mar 14 high).
“The upcoming publication is for February, and an increase of 2.7K is on the cards. Recurring increases in jobless claims will eventually lead to rises in unemployment. Markets have ignored it so far and will likely ignore it now, as Brexit overshadows everything. Nevertheless, if you are trading Sterling for the long-run, it is something to keep an eye for,” Yohay Elam, Senior Analyst at FXStreet explains.
Key Notes
UK: Unemployment rate likely to hold steady - TDS
GBP/USD Forecast: Third meaningful vote out of the way, UK jobs data eyed for short-term impetus
Brexit Monitor - 60% probability of a long Brexit extension
About UK jobs
The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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