When are the Australian retail sales/ trade data and how could they affect AUD/USD?
|Australian retail sale/ trade balance overview
Markets buckle up for the main event risks from Australia this Tuesday, with the December retail sales and trade figures slated for release at 00:30 GMT. Australia's seasonally-adjusted monthly retail sales are expected to drop -0.1% in December vs. the previous reading of 0.4%.
Meanwhile, the consensus forecasts are calling for Australia's balance of trade to bump higher to $3.2 billion AUD, up from the last reading of AUD 2,300 million. The Australian exports in November last came in at 1%, while Imports for the same period arrived at 2%.
How could they affect the AUD/USD?
The AUD/USD pair is likely to extend its recent bearish bias on disappointing results while, “the short-term picture is bearish for the pair, as, in the 4 hours chart, it extended its decline below the 20 SMA which partially lost its upward strength, while technical indicators entered negative ground, the Momentum maintaining its bearish slope and the RSI trying to find some stability at around 47. The 100 SMA stands at around 0.7185, with a break below it exposing 0.7140 first, and 0.7075 later in the day. Support levels: 0.7185 0.7140 0.7100. Resistance levels: 0.7235 0.7270 0.7305”, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes.
However, the reaction to the data may be short-lived/ limited, as the focus remains on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision, from which the markets are likely to take fresh hints on the next interest rate move by the Aussie central bank, in light of the housing market slowdown and trade worries.
Key Notes
AUD/USD: Better bid near 0.7225 ahead of key Australian data and RBA
AUD/NZD Technical Analysis: Modestly bearish ahead of key AU data and RBA
RBA Preview - Should A$ Traders Be Worried?
About the Australian retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
About the Australian trade balance
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
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