USD: Market wants a softer jobs figure – ING
|Fortunately, the very public fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk has not had broader market implications. Despite the travails for Tesla, the broader S&P 500 was only off 0.5% yesterday and futures now call the S&P modestly higher today. Notably, it's been a quiet week for the US Treasury market, where yields are broadly unchanged. The topic of how the US funds its growing fiscal deficit may be back next week, however, when we see three and 10-year auctions, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Soft jobs number can push DXY through 98.00
"The main event today is the 1430CET release of the May NFP jobs report. Jobs growth has been holding up reasonably well so far this year, but investors are on alert for any signs that April tariff uncertainty is prompting layoffs. And the Fed has said it stands ready to act should the jobs market deteriorate. On the back of soft ISM business surveys this week, the 'whisper' number for today's jobs number has fallen from +140k to +110k. Official consensus seems somewhere near +125k."
"For reference, the market prices 50bp of Fed cuts this year, starting in September. Any soft figure will no doubt bring broader calls from politicians for an immediate cut and get the market thinking about a move from the Fed at the 30 July meeting – when we'll know whether 'Liberation Day' tariffs have been reimposed."
"DXY requires quite a soft jobs number to break 98.00, with backup support around 97.20. We suspect any DXY spike on a better number exhausts in the 99.30/50 area as the bearish conviction on the dollar holds sway."
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