US recession odds edge higher amid manufacturing weakness - Bloomberg Economics
|The US recession fears inched higher as persistent manufacturing weakness offset record stock market rally at the year-end, according to Bloomberg Economics' model created to determine recession odds.
The latest update, which looks at December data, estimates the chance of a U.S. recession within the next year at 28%, up slightly from 25% in the prior month.
That said, the reading is lower than the level reached earlier last year and could slide further given initial positive readings across January data.
With the US economy doing well amid coronavirus scare and signs of a slowdown in the global economy, the American dollar is likely to remain a preferred safe haven.
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