US NFP Preview: Major Banks expectations from November payrolls report
|As we step into the last month of this year, it’s time for an all-important US nonfarm payrolls report and as we get closer to the payrolls report release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 4 major banks regarding the upcoming employment report.
Most of the economists and researchers are expecting November US NFP to post a reading in between 190K to 215K, and the unemployment rate to stabilize at its low of 3.7%.
Danske Bank
“Today, we have a numbers of important data releases on both sides of the Atlantic, starting with the US job reports for November, where we estimate non-farm payrolls rose around the current trend of 190,000. More importantly, we expect that average hourly earnings rose +0.3% m/m due to a continued tighter labour market.”
TD Securities
“The jobs report is shaping up to be hawkish across the board. We expect payrolls to rise by 215k in November, as growth reverts back toward its recent trend. The swing in payrolls over the prior two months suggest that hurricane impacts are complete. Removing the volatility, 3- to 6-month averages stood at 216k and 218k respectively. We look for payrolls to therefore normalize but remain strong in line with the resilience seen in job surveys, from regional Fed surveys to ISM indicators which on balance remain consistent with payrolls running at a +200k pace. Claims have ticked higher but not in the reference week and remain low. If anything we attribute the recent increase to holiday distortions.”
“Wages also have scope for a strong 0.3% print given the reference week and the announced Amazon hikes, leaving y/y growth at a new cycle high of 3.2%. Finally, we expect the unemployment rate to stabilize at its low of 3.7%, with risks skewed lower on a pullback in participation.”
ING
“The unemployment is likely to remain at a 49 year low, and this is likely to see continued upward pressure on wages. We look for annual wage growth to stay at 3.1% this month, but given growing evidence of pay pressures in various surveys, we look for wage growth to pick up again in coming months. Indeed, payrolls are likely to rise strongly with consumer spending continuing to be the key driver of growth in the US economy.”
Rabobank
“US payrolls is seen 198K vs. 250K last month, and the key average hourly earnings indicator is seen staying at 3.1% y-o-y.”
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