US NFP Preview: 6 Major Banks expectations for March payrolls report
|Today, the US jobs report for March is due to be reported at 14:30 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 6 major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data. Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post-reading in between -200k and +50k in March, while the consensus is -100k reading. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8% for the month.
BMO
“Speaking of jobs, there's a range of estimates as big as the ocean for this Friday's U.S. payroll report for March. The official BMO call is -150,000. It's all about timing; we know job losses will be horrendous, but it depends on when the cuts actually took place and if the survey period captures it.”
Nordea
“We forecast nonfarm payroll prints of -78k in March, -7.6 million in April and roughly 14.5 million for the entire Q2. We see the risk as clearly tilted towards higher numbers – especially for April.”
ABN Amro
“This is notably before last week’s unprecedented 3.3mn rise in jobless claims, and so we expect a relatively modest 200k fall in payrolls for this release.”
TDS
“The March data will probably still be recession-like, though, with net job growth held down by reduced hiring and payback for mild-weather-exaggerated strength. We forecast -200k.”
“As with payrolls, the data on the unemployment rate is likely to show much much more weakening in the April report than in the March report. We forecast a relatively modest rise, to 3.8% from 3.5%. We forecast a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings, with the 12-month change holding at 3.0%.”
Wells Fargo
“Nonfarm employment should eke out a modest gain of 50K jobs in March. Consensus calls for a 100K drop.”
“The unemployment rate likely remained unchanged at 3.5% in March. We expect average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month in March.”
Westpac
“We expect that US March non-farm payrolls will fall by -150k (market -100k). This deterioration should see the unemployment rate jolt higher to 4.0% (median 3.8%) while March average hourly earnings are expected to hold up at 0.2%mth, 3.0%yr.”
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