US dollar: No lasting relief – Goldman Sachs
|Economists at Goldman Sachs reason why they think the post-US inflation weakness in the dollar is not here to stay.
Key quotes
"Last week's softer inflation reports caused some understandable relief for risky assets and put depreciation pressure on the USD that can likely extend a bit further given the light calendar ahead and likelihood that this week's FOMC minutes will contain some discussion of the FOMC's apparent desire to slow the pace of hikes soon. But we do not expect it to be lasting relief."
“First of all, on the international side, slowing inflation has been a bit contagious, and in any case it is hard to find a major currency that we think can rally meaningfully in the near term given that other central banks face an even more difficult growth and inflation trade-off than the Fed. And on the US. specifically, most of the miss to our inflation forecasts came from bottlenecked and travel-related categories - such as used and new cars, as well as rental cars and hotels - while underlying inflation was slightly softer than last month's worrying report but essentially in line with the recent run rate and other measures of core."
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