U.S. data reviewed and previewed - Nomura
|Analysts at Nomura offered a review of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence.
Key Quotes:
"This measure of consumer sentiment reached the highest level since August 2001, rising to 113.7 in December, above expectations (Nomura: 111.0, Consensus: 109.0). November’s reading was revised upwards to 109.4 (previously reported as 107.1). The index of present situation ticked downwards to 126.1 from 132.0, which is still an elevated reading. The expectations index jumped sharply to 105.5 from 94.4, suggesting that consumers’ near-term outlook improved further, which could potentially boost consumer demands in coming months. This report appears consistent with the latest University of Michigan survey, which suggests that consumer sentiment was elevated in December following a post-election surge in November. However, it is unclear how long the current optimism might last. The Conference Board notes that the consumers’ continued optimism “will depend on whether or not their expectations are realized”, acknowledging a high degree of uncertainty regarding potential policy changes.
Preview Pending home sales:
Pending home sales index increased only by 0.1% m-o-m in October, a slower pace than in September. The slowdown was likely due to constrained supply in the housing market. As long as the supply remains subdued, a strong pickup in pending home sales may be elusive. But it is possible for this series to show a modest gain as consumers rush to lock in lower mortgage rates before further increases. Consensus is expecting an increase of 0.5% in November."
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