US Current Account at 9-year high: not a worry - Wells Fargo
|Analysts from Wells Fargo, point out that the US current account deficit rose to its highest level in about 9 years in the second quarter, but according to them the country appears to have little difficulty financing this red ink at present.
Key Quotes:
“The U.S. current account deficit widened from $113.5 billion (revised) in Q1-2017 to $123.1 billion in the second quarter, the most red ink in the overall current account in about 9 years.”
“The deficit in trade in goods, which was largely stable between 2014 and 2016 due in part to the collapse in petroleum prices, has widened again this year as oil prices have rebounded from their multi-year lows in early 2016. The surplus in the services balance has trended higher in recent quarters, but not enough to prevent the overall current account deficit from widening.”
“The overall red ink in the current account grew because the income that Americans earn on their overseas investments did not rise as much as the income that foreigners receive on their U.S. investments.”
“The current account deficit, which is equivalent to less than 3 percent of GDP at present, is really not that worrying because the United States appears to have little difficulty attracting the net capital inflows that are needed to finance the red ink in the current account.”
“As noted above, we do not really worry about the red ink in the current account at present. As a percent of GDP, the current account deficit reached about 6 percent in 2006. It was more challenging for the country to finance its current account deficit a decade ago than it is today.”
“Although we look for the dollar to trend lower in coming quarters as foreign central banks begin to tighten their respective policy stances, we believe U.S. assets will remain attractive to foreign investors, which will prevent a sharp decline in the value of the greenback.”
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