US Core PCE Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, Fed officials watch this measure
|The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, is set to show moderation in August after hitting 3.6% YoY in both June and July. The data is due out at 14:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of five major banks.
In the view of FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam, only a sharp fall in the Fed's favorite gauge could dethrone King Dollar.
TDS
“The core PCE price index appears to have risen more than the core CPI in August (an estimated 0.26% versus 0.10%), boosted by data from the PPI. The YoY change likely remained high at 3.6%.”
NBF
“The annual core PCE deflator may have pulled back by two ticks at 3.4%, still elevated on a historical basis.”
SocGen
“We do not anticipate much in the way of surprises, and the PCE deflator core and core deflator should track CPI gains of 0.3% MoM and 0.1% MoM well. The FOMC raised its current-year projection to 4.2% (4Q/4Q) for the PCE deflator. These monthly gains are consistent with that projection.”
CIBC
“Price pressures look to have remained steady in annual terms, with total PCE inflation likely running at 4.2%, while core PCE price inflation could have fallen by a tick while remaining well above the 2% target, at 3.5%.”
Danske Bank
“We look for slight moderation and headline at 4.1% YoY and core at 3.4% YoY.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.