US: An underwhelming jobs report with government shrinkage featuring in Feb payrolls – UOB Group
|The latest US Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last Fri (7 Mar) was weaker than expected as jobs creation came in below projections with a surprise uptick in the unemployment rate while wage growth was within estimates, UOB Group's Senior Economist Alvin Liew notes.
US reports a slightly weaker-than-expected jobs creation
"The US reported a slightly weaker-than-expected jobs creation at 151,000 in Feb (versus Bloomberg est 160,000) while unemployment rate also surprised with an uptick to 4.1% (from 4.0% in January). Job creation was still broad-based, but surprisingly, professional services and leisure recorded back-to-back losses, while government hiring slowed visibly as BLS reported that federal employment fell by -10,000 in February."
"After starting the year at a re-accelerating pace, wage growth continued to rise but within expectations at 0.3% m/m, 4.0% y/y in February (from 0.4% m/m, 3.9% y/y in January). "
"No change to our call as we maintain our FOMC view of only one 25-bps cut in 2Q 2025 (likely June FOMC) and then stay on hold for rest of the year at 4.25% (upper bound of Fed Funds Target Rate). Key data to watch will be Feb CPI inflation (12 March) and University of Michigan consumer confidence sentiment for Mar (14 March)."
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