US: All roads lead to midterm elections today – Deutsche Bank
|In view of analysis team at Deutsche Bank, the main focus today will of course centre on the US midterm elections and according to the betting website predictit.org, the base case of the Democrats taking the House but the Republicans retaining the Senate is around 60% likely.
Key Quotes
“The odds that the Republicans hold both chambers is around 30%, and the odds that the Democrats take both chambers is around 10%. We should know tonight, with the first polls closing at 6pm EST/11pm GMT, though the first major bellwether states to close will be Virginia and Florida at 7pm EST/midnight GMT.”
“The former has some marginal House races in the outskirts of Washington, DC, while the latter has a close Senate race. As the night progresses, we could know the final results by 10pm EST/3am GMT when the last marginal Senate races finish and enough House races are in the books that we should have a firm idea.”
“If things are still close, it could come down to California and its seven competitive House races, which could, in a worst-case scenario, take days or weeks to finalize as mail-in ballots are counted.”
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