UK: PM May to meet Juncker today – Danske Bank
|Analysts at Danske Bank point out that the UK Prime Minister Theresa May heads for Brussels today to deal with Juncker.
Key Quotes
“Her trip follows yet another defeat, as there was no support for her Brexit statement (the hard Brexiteers abstained). While the vote was only indicative and not legally-binding, it has probably made life more difficult for May, as she no longer can show she has a united party behind her.”
“EU is not willing to negotiate and make concessions if they do not know whether it will be sufficient. May has promised another vote by the end of February but she is unlikely to have anything new to bring forward then.”
“We have to get very close to the 29 March deadline (remember there is an EU summit on 21-22 March) or a small majority in the Commons will force May to ask for an extension of Article 50 by the end of this month. Pressure is rising on all.”
“We stick to our view that the two most likely outcomes are May's deal passing eventually (40%) or a second EU referendum (30%). A no deal scenario would probably only happen "by accident" and we attach a 15% probability to that scenario.”
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