Thailand: Growth outlook revised lower – UOB
|Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan assessed the outlook on Thailand’s economic growth for the current year.
Key Quotes
“Thailand’s economy expanded 1.6% y/y in 4Q19, marking its slowest growth pace since 3Q14. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the economy expanded merely 0.2% in 4Q19. Accounting for the latest growth print, Thailand clocked 2.4% growth for the whole of 2019.”
“We are downgrading our full-year growth further to 2.0% for 2020, accounting for the negative impact from the COVID-19 outbreak. This is down from our previous estimate of 2.8% which we highlighted was still subjected to downside risks of between 0.5% and 1.0% depending on the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak.”
“With the Bank of Thailand cutting its benchmark rate by 25bps to an unprecedented low of 1.0% in its February 2020 MPC meeting, we think that policy space is limited at this juncture. We also view that Thailand’s elevated household debt levels and inflation pressures could be exacerbated if rates are cut further in 2020. As such, we do not expect the Bank of Thailand to reduce rates further in 2020. Instead, we expect economic stimulus to come from fiscal space (ie budget disbursements, relaxed rules to facilitate capital outflows etc) to mitigate the impact arising from the COVID-19 outbreak.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.