S&P 500 futures Monday playbook: Bulls eye 6,000 on 5,960 reclaim, bears target 5,904 POC break

EPM25 – Monday trading plan update.

Based on the May 17 end-of-week chart with supply and demand projection, Volume Profile & VWAP.

1. Key levels to watch

Resistance zone 5,969–5,977, 50% Fib of today's range just under VAH.

Major resistance 6,000 Round number, May 14–15 swing high.

Short-term pivot    5,960 Yesterday's breakout/remedy level.

Immediate support  5,932 38.2% Fib of today's mini-swing.

Secondary support 5,917 50% Fib of today's swing.

POC / VWAP mid-line (cyan) ~5,904 Volume-Weighted control point.

Lower support 5,870 Rising channel base & Yesterday's low.

VAL (pink) ~5,850 Value-Area-Low on Volume Profile.

2. Market context and bias

• Uptrend intact: Despite the pullback from 5,969–5,977, price has held above both the VWAP mid-line and the channel's mid-pitch.

• Volume profile: POC sits at ~5,904. Holding above reinforces the bullish order flow; a drop below undermines it.

• End-of-week pullback: Failure to sustain above 5,969 suggests profit-taking into the close, setting up a Monday test of POC/VWAP.

3. Bullish scenario (Longs)

1. Reclaim & hold 5,960:

   • Entry: On a clean push back above 5,960 with a 1–2-bar retest.

   • Targets: 5,969 → 5,977 → 6,000.

   • Stop: Below 5,940 (just under 38.2% Fib at 5,932).

2. POC bounce:

   • Entry: Bounce off 5,904 (POC/VWAP mid-line) on increased volume.

   • Targets: 5,932 → 5,969.

   • Stop: 5,890 (beneath the rising VWAP band).

4. Bearish scenario (Shorts)

1. Failure at 5,969–5,977:

   • Entry: Rejection in that zone, fading back below 5,960.

   • Targets: 5,932 → 5,904.

   • Stop: Above 5,980.

2. Break Below POC (5,904):

   • Entry: Close below VWAP/POC on a 5-min close.

   • Targets: 5,870 → 5,850 (VAL) → 5,814

   • Stop: Above 5,920 (just above the POC)

US mid session May 17

US session end of trades may 17

5. Risk management and notes

• Position sizing: Keep risk ≤ 1% of account on any single trade.

• Volume confirmation: Favour entries when volume spikes at your level.

• Channel context: If price returns to the lower channel rail (5,870) and holds, look for reversal longs into Tuesday.

• Overnight risk: Be aware of any geopolitical headlines after hours that could gap the Sunday/ Monday open.