RUB: One positive scenario emerging – Commerzbank
|Commerzbank's FX Research report by Tatha Ghose discusses the outlook for the Ruble amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions. The report highlights a potential positive scenario if a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is reached, which could lead to the lifting of some sanctions. However, the overall economic outlook remains challenging, with signs of stress and a weaker currency forecasted in the absence of significant geopolitical changes.
Outlook for the Ruble
"All said, one positive scenario is emerging, even if not for the right reasons. The US administration has been trying to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The negotiations are reportedly stuck at a complex juncture involving territorial surrender."
"It is not our base-case that a solution can be found around this quagmire soon. Nevertheless, if a solution were to somehow be found, we may assume that some major sanctions on Russia would be lifted."
"In conclusion, a positive scenario regarding sanctions and frozen assets may now be priced-in with some probability. A peace treaty is not our base-case for the near-term. But in the event that a solution is found, the rouble would appreciate considerably from current levels."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.