Review: US data overnight with a GDP Q4 tracker - Nomura
|Analysts at Nomura ofered a review for the US data overnight with a GDP Q4 tracker.
Key Quotes:
"Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims for the week ending 24 December were 265k, down 10k from the previous week’s reading of 275k. Continuing claims for the week ending 17 December increased to 2102k. Initial jobless claims data have been on a downtrend for a while, suggesting labor market conditions remain firm. The latest reading appears to be consistent with this trend.
Advance goods trade balance: According to the November Advance Economic Indicators report by the Census Bureau, the goods trade balance was -$65.3bn in November from -$61.9bn in October (Nomura:-$61.4bn, Consensus:-$61.6bn). Exports of goods were weaker than expected, down 1.0% m-o-m. The slowdown in goods exports was broad-based across most categories. By contrast, goods imports outpaced goods exports, up 1.2% from the prior month.
Q4 GDP tracking update: The advance goods trade gap was wider than expected in November, which is negative for Q4 GDP growth.
In addition, preliminary estimates for wholesale and retail inventories from the same report were positive for our model as they registered modest gains of 0.9% and 1.0% m-o-m, respectively. Altogether, after rounding, our tracking estimate is unchanged at 1.2%.
US Dollar Index drops to 1-week lows
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