RBA's Quarterly SOMP - Trims near-term jobless rate forecast, inflation forecasts little changed
|The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) trimmed the near-term unemployment forecast and kept the inflation and growth forecasts largely unchanged, the bank's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) shows.
Key points
Higher AUD would dampen growth.
Trade-weighted AUD has been in relatively narrow range for couple of years.
Lowers jobless estimate to 5.25% from 5.5% through June 2019.
Says, "will be 'some time' before the economy reaches full employment".
Sees underlying inflation at 2.25% by June 2020.
Recent new enterprise agreements to put downward pressure on wage growth for couple of years.
Household income growth slow, if that persists it would constrain consumption.
Household consumption looks to have recovered in q4, seen running a little above decade average.
Outlook for business investment improved markedly, aided by infrastructure spending.
Outlook for global growth positive despite volatility in equity markets.
Curbs on bank lending has helped cool housing markets, household debt still high.
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