RBA’s Debelle: Keynote address at the 14th Annual Risk Australia Conference
|RBA's deputy Governor, Debelle, is crossing the wires with a Keynote Address At the 14th Annual Risk Australia Conference.
Key comments:
- Evidence that fall in house prices has reached its end, may start supporting consumption.
- Assumes households will spend around half of tax refunds.
- Do not expect much of an increase in wages growth, employment seen "reasonable".
- Primary risk to domestic economy is outlook for consumption.
- Trade is increasingly being used as a bargaining tool of choice.
- China stimulus has, so far, offset impact of trade dispute on Australia.
- Firms might have to chose between east and west rather than selling into global market.
- Sino-US. trade dispute causing significant uncertainty for business.
- Plausible that effects of technology dispute will be larger than that of tariffs.
- Businesses waiting to see how uncertainty resolves rather than invest.
- Says reluctance to invest runs the risk of a self-fulfilling downturn.
- Global economy runs risk of self-fulfilling downturn.
- Not sure how much signal to take from inversion of US yield curve.
FX implications:
There was a brief pop to the downside but the markets are dead, awaiting the Australian Unemployment data as the main driver for the day ahead.
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