Philippines: Inflation dropped more than expected in October – UOB
|UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting review the latest inflation figures in the Philippines.
Key Takeaways
The Philippine’s headline inflation eased to 4.9% y/y in Oct (from +6.1% in Sep), slower than our estimate (5.5%) and Bloomberg consensus (5.6%). This was largely thanks to a smaller gain in prices of food, fuels and major services components (including passenger transport services, health and restaurants & accommodation services) amid year-ago high base effects.
Although consumer price inflation is expected to continue its downtrend, but it will likely to stay above the central bank’s upper bound target range of 4.0% in the remaining two months of this year. Headline inflation will only return to BSP’s 2.0%-4.0% target range in 1Q24 with risks remaining tilted to the upside. Hence, we maintain our full-year inflation outlook at 6.0% for 2023 (BSP est: 5.8%, 2022: 5.8%) and 3.5% for 2024 (BSP est: 3.5%). Volatile global commodity prices and currency fluctuation are still wildcards to the inflation outlook going into next year, together with potential changes in domestic price policy and adverse weather conditions.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.