Nvidia Q4 earnings in focus as S&P 500 holds tight range

As the clock ticks down to Nvidia’s Q4 (FY2026) earnings after the bell, the S&P 500 is holding its breath within a newly established tight range.

This report is critical, as the aftermath will answer two major questions for the market:

• The Profit Gap: Is Nvidia starting to feel the impact of the broader tech sector’s underwhelming AI monetization?
• The Sentiment Shift: If the growth is still there, is it explosive enough to cure Wall Street’s mounting fears about AI’s long-term performance?

Here is the massive hurdle Nvidia needs to clear today to keep the rally alive:

Not only does Nvidia have to clear this $66 billion revenue bar to satisfy a skeptical Wall Street, but CEO Jensen Huang is doing it right on the doorstep of their massive GTC tech event next month.

What he says on the call today won’t just dictate if the S&P 500 breaks out of its mini range tomorrow—it will set the entire narrative for the AI industry’s biggest conference of the year.

Quick note: GTC (GPU Technology Conference) is Nvidia’s premier annual global AI and developer event. Often called the “Super Bowl of AI,” it is where CEO Jensen Huang sets the roadmap for the tech industry by unveiling the company’s next-generation chips, new software platforms, and major partnerships.

Nvidia is range bound, awaiting for closing bell earnings

As one would expect, Nvidia is currently range-bound as we edge towards the earnings report. The range is approximately between $171 to $194, with the mid range at $182.

Nvidia four-hour chart

Just above the range however, sits a critical resistance at $196 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), formed by the decline created in November 2025. 

This opens up the possibility of a fakeout as we break above $194; watch for a potential rejection at $196.

Price action is stalling as traders focus on two critical AI hardware catalysts:

Blackwell Chips: Wall Street needs to know if the high manufacturing costs of these newly launched AI chips will squeeze Nvidia’s crucial 75% profit margins.

Vera Rubin Chips: Investors are listening closely for any teasers regarding Nvidia’s futuristic, next-generation chip architecture ahead of next month’s GTC event.

Here is how those fundamental answers will dictate the technical levels:

The Bullish Breakout: If Nvidia crushes expectations and eases margin concerns, look for a high-volume break above the $194 level. Clearing the $196 resistance invalidates any fakeout fears and opens the runway to retest all-time highs.

The Bearish Rejection: If earnings disappoint or Blackwell costs severely compress margins, that $194-$196 zone will act as a brick wall. A sharp rejection there could send the price spiraling back through the $182 mid-range, exposing the $171 support floor.

S&P 500’s mini range amidst a big range

After smacking into the $7,000 psychological ceiling, the S&P 500 has whipsawed within a broad macro range of $6,700 to $6,990.

But if you zoom in on recent days, a tighter, more actionable micro-range is building between $6,830 and $6,900. The index is currently respecting the 1-hour 200-EMA, with only minor deviations.

S&P 500 1H chart

Looking at the 1H chart above, notice three key technicals:

We are whipsawing again, but more importantly, the index is currently pinned below the 200-EMA.

This consolidation formed right after a rejection at the $6,909 level (the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance drawn from the steep early-February decline).

The 1H Stochastic RSI is curling into overbought territory, signaling potential bullish exhaustion.

If Nvidia earnings beat, price could break the mini range to the upside, towards $6,990 to $7,000.

If earnings disappoint, it opens up a trading opportunity within the tight range — e.g. a rejection from $6,900 to $6,830.

If the numbers merely meet expectations, sit on your hands, watch the price action, and let the market choose its direction before committing.