NOK should appreciate moderately against the EUR in the course of 2024 – Commerzbank
|Economists at Commerzbank forecast of a moderate appreciation of the Norwegian Krone.
Norges Bank remains hawkish
Increased risk aversion in the market is weighing on the Krone, but rising Oil prices are supporting it. In this respect, the current geopolitical situation is relatively neutral for the NOK, but it is likely to trade volatile in the short term.
Norges Bank does not see first interest rate cuts until the end of 2024. At the same time, from a market's perspective, the ECB will no longer act decisively enough against stubbornly high inflation next year with a view to the peripheral countries, so that a risk premium on the euro is justified. This suggests that the NOK will continue to appreciate against the Euro in 2024.
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