Nasdaq futures stumble at channel ceiling, bulls rally to defend mid‑channel pivot
|Holding 23,432 is critical for a relief rally toward 23,545; failure risks a deeper slide into the 23,385–23,327 support zone.
Price action recap
- 29 July opening: After a strong push to channel resistance at 23,652, the index stalled and reversed from the 23,630 pivot, retreating to the middle of its ascending channel (micro 3 at 23,432).
- Asian session defence: Early buyers stepped in at 23,432, coinciding with the weekly POC and VWAP zone, successfully fending off further declines and stabilising the price.
Key technical levels
23,652 – Upper channel line / micro 5 pivot – short-term cap; failure triggered yesterday’s pullback
23,479 – Micro 4 pivot / weekly POC – break and hold above here confirms bullish control
23,432 – Micro 3 pivot / channel midpoint – immediate battleground; holds swing high support
23,385 – Micro 2 pivot – first stop if 23,432 gives way
23,327 – Micro 1 pivot / lower channel line – key long-term support; losing this risks deeper sell-off
Chart-based insights
- Ascending channel intact: Price remains within a well-defined rising channel since early July. A sustained move back above 23,479 would signal a resumption of that uptrend.
- Volume profile confluence: The weekly POC sits at 23,479, layering extra significance on the micro 4 pivot—this zone often attracts sizable order flow.
- Momentum oscillators: The TTM Squeeze histogram has flipped back to blue after yesterday’s red, suggesting the pullback may be exhausted and a short-term bounce is probable.
- Stochastic dynamics: Fast %K/%D lines are rebounding from oversold territory, supporting the view that buyers are regaining control at the mid-channel level.
Trading scenarios
- Bullish continuation:
- Trigger: Clean break and close above 23,479 (micro 4), ideally with increased volume.
- Targets: First 23,545 (micro 5), then channel top around 23,652.
- Invalidation: A reversal back below 23,432 undermines this view.
- Bearish reversal:
- Trigger: Failure to hold 23,432, especially on a London open sweep.
- Targets: 23,385 (micro 2), then 23,327 (micro 1) at the lower channel boundary.
- Alternate support: The weekly VAL near 23,333 could arrest a deeper slide.
By combining channel structure, volume-based pivots, and momentum indicators, this update highlights the pivotal role of 23,432. Maintaining that level keeps bulls in charge; a clear breach shifts momentum swiftly toward the lower channel edge.
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