More bad news on global growth awaits – Natixis
|Patrick Artus, Research Analyst at Natixis, suggests that most forecasters should be expected to follow the IMF’s lead in July 2018 and reduce their forecasts for global economic growth and should have become more cautious a long time ago.
Key Quotes
“Why should bad news on global growth be expected?
- Protectionism has a negative effect, but it is difficult to estimate: if the price-sensitivity of imports in volume terms is low, and if the tariffs raised are passed on to consumers, then this negative effect is reduced;
- The appearance of significant hiring difficulties (United States, euro zone, Japan) will certainly slow growth;
- The investment cycle (durable goods purchases) is also coming to an end, which is a common cause of cyclical downturns, in the euro zone and China; the downturn in investment could be amplified by rising uncertainty;
- The upturn in inflation has eliminated real wage growth in many countries, due to low nominal wage indexation to prices;
- Capital outflows from emerging countries can be expected to weaken their economies.”
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