Le Pen vs Macron volatility - BTMU
|With Le Pen’s policies so much a contrast of either Macron’s or Fillon’s, any shift in expectations on the outcome of the election is going to create higher volatility.
Key Quotes:
"The signs of this occurring already points to markets taking political risks more seriously than last year. If so, there is plenty for investors to contemplate in relation to a Le Pen victory.
On 4 th February Le Pen published 144 “commitments” containing her policies that include expelling foreigners with any form of criminal or misdemeanour record; renegotiating France’s relationship with the EU to such a degree to effectively seek France’s withdrawal from the EU; and pulling France out of the single currency.
While there are numerous hurdles that suggest Le Pen would have difficulties in achieving these goals, her victory would no doubt be hugely damaging to the EU project. One important hurdle will be Le Pen’s ability to work with parliament.
The parliamentary elections take place in June and one reason for the close proximity is to reduce the scenario of “cohabitation” with the President having to work with a PM from a different party. However, a shock victory for Le Pen may well fuel a rush to vote for other parties in order to curtail the powers of the National Front.
NF currently only has 2 deputies in the 577-member parliament. NF’s presence is bound to increase but a Le Pen presidency would not coexist with a National Front PM."
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