Key bond market recession signal seen postponed to next year - Reuters poll
|According to the latest Reuters poll of bond strategists, “nearly 60 percent of respondents to a separate question also expected the US economy to enter a recession within the next two years, not very different from the previous poll.”
Additional Findings:
“Only about one-fifth of those answering an additional question expected the gap between U.S. 2-year and 10-year note yields to invert within the next six months, compared to over one-third in the previous poll.
But although 40 percent of analysts who answered the inversion question predict it in a year, the overall forecast is still of a steeper curve, not a flatter one: median forecasts show the gap between 2-year and 10-year note yields about 7 basis points wider to 25 basis points from about 18 now.”
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