Iran nuclear deal hopes – ING
|The oil market sold off yesterday following comments from President Trump that the US and Iran were moving closer towards a nuclear deal, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
OPEC+ countries are ramping up supply
"A nuclear deal that lifts sanctions will obviously remove a lot of the supply risk hanging over the market for some time now. In addition, it would allow Iran to increase oil output with more willing buyers for its oil. This could result in additional supply in the neighborhood of 400k b/d."
"Concerns over the potential for additional Iranian supply come as OPEC+ are also ramping up supply. In addition, there are plenty of concerns over the demand outlook for the market. This was evident in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly oil market report, released yesterday. The IEA estimates that global oil demand growth will slow from 990k b/d in the first quarter to 650k b/d for the remainder of the year."
"This sees 2025 demand growing by 740k b/d. Slowing growth reflects economic headwinds and strong EV sales. For 2026, the agency expects demand to grow by 760k b/d. The IEA expects supply to grow by 1.6m b/d in 2025 and 970k b/d in 2026. Lower oil prices prodded the IEA to lower its US supply growth estimates for this year and next."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.