IEA raises 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 110,000 bpd
|In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised the 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 110,000 bpd to 1.3 mln bpd.
Additional takeaways
Oil on water hit second highest level since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Global on-land oil stocks fell for a seventh month to lowest level since at least 2016.
Weaker economic outlook, efficiency improvements and ev sales temper oil growth.
Oil consumption reverting toward historical trend after volatility of post-pandemic rebound.
If OPEC+ voluntary cuts held in place through 2024, sees market in slight deficit rather than surplus.
Red Sea trade flow disruptions boosted bunker fuel use and us ethane demand surged.
Global oil demand growth in Q1 2024 to rise by 270,000 bpd to 1.7 mln bpd.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, WTI is testing intraday highs near the $80 mark, up 0.90% on the day.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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