Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD pulls back towards $1,750 ahead of Biden-Xi talks, Fed’s pivot eyed
|- Gold price retreats from three-month high, snaps two-month uptrend.
- Cautious mood ahead of the key data/events, market’s consolidation amid a light calendar favor XAUUSD pullback.
- Fed’s signals for easy rate hikes keep gold buyers hopeful.
- Risk catalysts are the key for near-term directions, US Retail Sales eyed too.
Gold price (XAUUSD) consolidates the biggest weekly gains since March 2020 around $1,762 during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the bright metal prints mild losses inside a one-week-old bullish chart pattern.
It should be noted that the light calendar appeared to have triggered the XAUUSD pullback near the highest levels in three months. Also likely to have probed the gold buyers is the anxiety ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and China's Prime Minister Xi Jinping on the sidelined of the Group of 20 Nations (G20) gathering in Bali.
On the same line are comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller who tried to defend the bulls while saying, “Rates will not fall until there is ‘clear, strong evidence’ inflation is falling.”
Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures retreat from a one-month high, down 0.30% intraday near 3,990, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields rise six basis points (bps) to 3.89%, printing the first daily gains in four.
Moving on, updates from Bali can entertain XAUUSD traders as market sentiment deteriorates. Any spark in China’s relations with its global counterpart, by supporting Russia, should exert more downside pressure on gold. However, the previous week’s talks of the Fed’s easy rate hikes in December, backed by the downbeat prints of US consumer-centric numbers, seem to keep the gold buyers hopeful.
Technical analysis
An impending bear cross on the MACD joins the overbought RSI (14) to challenge gold buyers inside a one-week-old bullish channel, currently between $1,785 and $1,741.
It should be noted, however, that the commodity’s trading below $1,741 isn’t an open welcome to the XAUUSD bears as the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,671 acts as the last defense of the gold buyers.
Alternatively, an upside break of the stated channel’s support line, close to $1,785, won’t hesitate to aim for the $1,800 threshold ahead of challenge August month’s peak near $1,808.
Overall, the gold price is likely to witness a short-term downside but the broadly bullish trend remains intact unless the quote stays beyond $1,671.
Gold: Four-hour chart
Trend: Limited downside expected
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