Global trade: Upside surprise in August, still 2016 will be a disappointment - ING
|Daniel Bosgraaf, Economist at ING explained that global trade figures surprised to the upside in August, but he warned that still, 2016 will be a disappointment.
Key Quotes:
“The volume of trade in goods grew 1.5% MoM in August, according to data released this afternoon by The Netherlands Bureau of Policy Analysis (CPB). This is good news after the -1.1% contraction in July. Imports have grown almost everywhere, with only Japan showing a contraction. Emerging Economies lead with an average increase of imports of 2.9%, whereas Advanced Economies show an increase of 1.1%. Figures on exports for Emerging Economies (+1.3%) and Advanced Economies (+1.2%) were very close.”
“If we look at the first eight months of 2015 against the first eight of 2016, trade has not grown at all. However, the trade volumes in the last four months of 2015 were low, possibly allowing 2016 to end on a positive note.”
“Fundamentally, world trade is facing many challenges: protectionist measures are outnumbering liberalising measures, re-shoring, greenfield investment and a slowdown of global value chain expansion all continue to weigh heavily on world trade. In addition, trade agreements are extremely unpopular with the public.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.