Fitch: Catalonia's secession from Spain is very unlikely
|"The confrontational nature of the vote on Catalonia independence has increased near-term political risks," Fitch Ratings said in a recently published report.
Key quotes:
- The immediate consequences of Sunday's vote are hard to predict.
- There remains a risk of fresh disturbances.
- The recent events could also weaken the ability of Spain's minority Popular Party government to implement national policy.
- We view Catalonia's secession from Spain as very unlikely, and our central assumption remains that there will ultimately be a settlement on regional financial reform and greater autonomy for Catalonia within Spain.
- We forecast above-trend GDP growth of 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, but a further sustained escalation in tensions between the Catalonia and Spanish governments would represent a downside risk.
- A further escalation of tensions that undermine these assumptions could prompt negative rating action.
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