Fed officials keep rate rises alive for 2016 - UOB
|Analysts at UOB Group explained that the August employment report headlines a full economic data docket in the US this week, and this could meaningfully impact market expectations on the near-term trajectory of monetary policy.
Key Quotes:
"Recent comments from numerous Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have kept the prospect of a rate increase this year on the table. Beginning on Monday, personal income/spending data for July will be released. On Tuesday, markets receive S&P/CaseShiller home prices for June and consumer confidence releases for August. As always, Wednesday’s ADP private employment report will influence market expectations going into Friday’s non-farm payrolls report."
"The Chicago PMI for August and pending home sales releases for July will be rolled out mid-week as well. On Thursday, markets receive non-farm productivity/unit labor costs for 2Q16, as well as ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales data for August."
"Trade balance and factory order releases for July will finish off the week, but the key focus will obviously be on the employment situation for August, including the widely-watched non-farm payrolls. We think the US is likely to add 250k jobs in August (the median forecast is lower at 180k). There will also be several Fed Reserve officials speaking in public forums across this week."
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